Viktor Orban may be heading into the most dangerous election of his 16 years in power, but even a clear opposition victory might not be enough to dislodge the system he built. Speaking on TVP World’s Wider View program, Zsuzsanna Szelényi, a former Hungarian lawmaker, author of Tainted Democracy and program director at the CEU Democracy Institute, said the opposition’s lead would normally point to a likely change of power. But, she argued, Hungary is no longer operating under normal electoral conditions. Szelényi said Orbán’s Fidesz party has spent years reshaping the political system, from electoral rules to media influence, making the outcome harder to predict than polling alone suggests. “In a normal election, we could say today here that the opposition will probably win in Hungary,” she said. “But we cannot say this.” War narrative A major theme in the election campaign is war. Jan Strupczewski, head of the Reuters bureau in Brussels, said on Wider View that Orbán is trying to cast himself as the “anti-war” candidate and to portray Magyar as someone who would pull Hungary deeper into the conflict around Ukraine. Szelényi argued that Fidesz has repeatedly built campaigns around external enemies and is now placing Ukraine and Brussels at the center of that message. The international dimension is one reason the Hungarian election matters far beyond Budapest. If Tisza wins, what then? Even victory may not translate into smooth rule. Szelényi warned that institutions packed over the past 15 years could obstruct a new government, making any transition messy and prolonged. Strupczewski added that a Magyar government would likely move quickly to restore compliance with EU rules in the hope of unlocking billions of euros currently frozen over rule-of-law concerns.
