Polling booths have opened in Italy for a referendum on judicial reform, with experts predicting a tight result in a vote seen as a political test for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Giuseppe Adamo, an international affairs expert at the Institute of New Europe, told TVP World’s World Talks that the vote is formally about the structure of Italy’s justice system, but politically it will be taken as measure of Meloni’s strength ahead of general elections in 2027. “It’s really too close to call,” Adamo said, saying that the tight race is likely to hinge on turnout, with voting running from Sunday until Monday afternoon. A litmus test for Meloni At the center of the referendum is a government-backed plan to separate the career paths of judges and prosecutors, split Italy’s self-governing judicial body into two parts and change how members are selected, including through a lottery-style draw. Supporters say the reform would reduce politicization and modernize a system long criticized as inefficient and overly factionalized. Opponents argue it could weaken judicial independence and open the door to greater political control over prosecutors. “The polls are saying that this constitutional reform is completely dividing the Italian population,” Adamo said, adding that most surveys suggest the contest is effectively split down the middle. A victory for the “yes” camp would hand Meloni a major political boost after months of fierce debate. A “no” win, while not expected to bring down the government, would likely energize the opposition and raise fresh questions about her ability to deliver major reforms. Meloni has said she will not resign if voters reject the measure, distancing herself from the strategy taken by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi after his failed 2016 constitutional referendum. External pressures in the background The campaign has unfolded against the backdrop of rising energy costs and instability in the Middle East. Italy has moved in recent days to cushion the impact of higher fuel prices, with Meloni’s government cutting excise duties as households and businesses feel the strain of the broader energy shock. That wider climate may matter even in a vote centered on the judiciary. “If Italians are going to have a really huge expense in their pockets, that’s going to influence how they’re going to vote,” Adamo said, arguing that day-to-day economic pressure could shape the outcome of a referendum formally focused on constitutional change.
