By 9 p.m. pollster ZDF’s exit survey showed the Greens leading with 31.5% of the vote share. The party had narrowly overtaken Merz’s CDU with 30.5%. The chancellor’s party had been poised for victory earlier in the evening. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) followed on 18%. The result seems to confirm AfD’s position as Germany's main opposition party, even outside its heartland in the former communist eastern states. Merz's coalition partners in Berlin, the centre-left Social Democrats were on course for just 5.5% of the vote, confirming the precipitous drop in support seen in recent years but just scraping past the minimum threshold to enter state parliament. Baden-Wuerttemberg, home to Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Bosch and one of the traditional strongholds of the German car industry, is one of Germany's most prosperous regions. But its auto sector and wider economy have been hit hard by increasing competition from China's surging electric vehicles makers. After a decade of Green-CDU coalition government in Baden-Württemberg, the moderate Green candidate for state premier, Cem Ozdemir is unlikely to make life difficult for Merz in the Bundesrat, the upper house of parliament that represents the states in Germany's federal system. But the result underlines Merz's struggles to cut through with voters, as promised reforms have stalled and a sluggish economy comes back slowly from two years in recession. Initially trailing in the race, the Greens overtook the Christian Democrats as the ballot approached and the result is likely to fuel discontent among conservatives already alarmed at the record low approval levels for Merz's government in Berlin. The Baden-Wuerttemberg election was the first of five state elections this year, with voters in neighbouring Rhineland-Palatinate due to go to the polls on March 22, followed by Berlin, Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenberg-Vorpommern in September.
