As war with Iran escalates, the Kremlin is trying to turn chaos into leverage, but “it’s like asking an arsonist to be the firefighter,” analyst Ivana Stradner has said. Stradner, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told TVP World that Moscow’s offer to mediate in the US-Israel-Iran conflict is less about peacemaking and more about power projection and bargaining over Ukraine. ‘With friends like Putin…’ Even if Tehran were to ask Moscow for help, Stradner argued Russia is constrained by its war in Ukraine. She pointed to what she described as a pattern of the Kremlin failing or refusing to back partners when costs rise, warning that “with friends like Putin, they do not need any enemy.” Stradner also said Putin’s mediation pitch is designed to portray Russia as a global power while positioning Iran’s interests closer to Moscow’s talking points, a move she believes few governments will trust. Opportunity for Moscow? Stradner also warned that the Middle East war could become an opportunity for Moscow if it distracts Washington from Ukraine’s air-defense needs. She said she is watching the availability of Patriot systems as Russia continues strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, arguing that Ukraine’s battlefield experience with drones could be valuable in any future deal-making. At the same time, she urged Western capitals not to “fall for Putin’s latest promises,” warning that Russia’s strategy is to “outlast the West” — including through continued hybrid pressure on Europe, from sabotage to influence operations.
