Europe’s influence over the rapidly evolving conflict involving Iran is “absolutely minimal,” said Marcin Bużański, warning that the economic and security fallout could hit European states hardest even as Washington urges allies to close ranks. Bużański, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Negotiation at Warsaw’s Collegium Civitas, made the remarks in an interview with TVP World’s World Talks as European leaders deliberated over how to respond to the U.S.–Israeli campaign against Iran and the mounting risk of escalation in the eastern Mediterranean. Energy shock risks spillover into Europe Bużański argued that Europe’s most immediate vulnerability is economic. Disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global energy shipments, could drive up oil and insurance costs, even if shipping lanes remain open. Market indicators already showed price increases on fears of wider supply disruption. European policymakers are also monitoring potential impacts on gas supplies. EU officials have convened emergency coordination talks to evaluate risks from disrupted shipping and energy infrastructure across the region. Bases under pressure, politics at home Bużański’s comments came as a suspected drone strike targeted Britain’s RAF Akrotiri airbase in Cyprus, underscoring how European partners could be drawn into defensive operations even if they do not support initial strikes in the conflict. The incident occurred overnight on 1–2 March 2026, when a drone – widely reported to be of Iranian origin – impacted part of the base’s infrastructure, causing limited damage. Two additional drones were reportedly intercepted later. Bużański warned that a prolonged crisis could fuel domestic political volatility across Europe, where leaders face elections and electorates sensitive to inflation, energy prices, and migration pressures. Ukraine and wider strategic calculus He also said higher oil prices could indirectly benefit Russia by boosting revenues that help finance Moscow’s military operations in Ukraine. Bużański added that U.S. air-defense resources diverted to protect bases in the Middle East could tighten supplies elsewhere — a dynamic with implications for allied support to Kyiv.
