Russia’s war-driven budget squeeze is quietly reshaping the balance of power inside the federation, a senior analyst has said, arguing that Moscow’s tax system is turning governors from loyal “props” into potential liabilities for the Kremlin. Paul Goble, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank Jamestown Foundation, told TVP World’s Eastern Express program that regional authorities are being pushed into an impossible position: they must meet expanding federal demands—from housing and schools to war-related obligations—while sending most locally collected revenue back to the capital. A center that takes—and a periphery that breaks Goble said regions keep only a fraction of the taxes they collect, leaving them to shoulder what he called “unfunded liabilities.” The result, he argued, is visible in deteriorating public services and infrastructure—problems that can quickly spill into daily life when heating systems fail or basic maintenance is deferred. Borrowing, improvising and learning to resist To cope, Goble said regional governments are borrowing more often from the center itself, deepening their dependence on Moscow. Some, he added, are also trying informal, cooperative fixes with neighboring regions. Over time, he argued, that kind of improvisation can translate into leverage: if local leaders can obstruct federal priorities, the Kremlin may find it cheaper to offer resources than to launch a full-scale purge. Still, Goble cautioned against predictions of imminent collapse. Instead, he framed the moment as a gradual recalibration of center–periphery relations that could matter most in a post-Putin transition.
