Rising tensions between Washington and its European allies over Greenland and looming U.S. tariffs could deepen divisions inside NATO at a moment of mounting global instability, security analyst Ivana Stradner has told TVP World. Stradner, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the World News Tonight program it was too early to predict a collapse of the transatlantic alliance, but cautioned that President Donald Trump’s confrontational approach risks weakening Western unity at a time when Russia and China are actively seeking to undermine it. “I think it's too early to predict any doomsday scenario right now,” she said, while stressing that Greenland remains strategically vital for European, American, and transatlantic security. Still, she argued that pressuring allies through tariffs and public threats could backfire. “The last thing that we need is to make our allies being upset at the United States.” Stradner warned that a tariff escalation—expected to reach 10% as early as February, with the possibility of rising to 25 percent later in the year—would likely trigger European retaliation, creating what she described as a “lose-lose” scenario. “Neither the United States nor Europe are going to win. The only winners in this whole story will be Russia and China,” she said. She also expressed concern over reports that Moscow has floated the idea of renewed cooperation with Washington in the Arctic, framing it as a familiar Russian tactic. “That’s an old Russian game—peace through trade,” Stradner said, warning that such overtures could distract from broader strategic competition in the Arctic and beyond. Asked about proposals for a new “Board of Peace” that could include leaders such as Vladimir Putin, Stradner was skeptical, arguing that dividing Western allies would only embolden authoritarian powers. “Right now we need unity between Europe and the United States,” she said, adding that many European countries are unlikely to support initiatives that legitimize Russia’s leadership while war continues in Ukraine.
