After nearly three decades of negotiations, a landmark EU–Mercosur trade deal is approaching a decisive moment. As European farmers protest and political hesitation lingers in Brussels, pressure is mounting from abroad—not least from Washington. According to Tomasz Włostowski, managing partner at Brussels-based public affairs consultancy EU Strategies, farmers’ anger may be loud, but it is ultimately misplaced. “The real problems farmers are facing are not related to South America at all, but to the role of agriculture inside the EU, funding of the Common Agricultural Policy, and their position in the supply chain.” To calm tensions, the European Commission has proposed releasing €45 billion from emergency reserves. “This is not new money,” Włostowski noted. “It’s money that was meant for future crises—and we’re already using it now.” Still, he argued, the payout may be enough to secure political backing among EU member states, even if protests continue. But delays carry risks. “This is the 26th year of negotiations” on the Mercosur deal, Włostowski said. “The window for closing this deal is quickly closing as global developments accelerate.” These include growing U.S. pressure on South America following Washington’s seizure of Venezuela’s leader and renewed threats toward Cuba under Donald Trump. “Nobody in South America believes they’ll get a better deal from the United States,” he said. “They might be intimidated—which is exactly why they’ll want to seal this deal with Europe before pressure increases.” Investors, meanwhile, are uneasy. “An environment where policy changes every other day because of a tweet is not one where major investment decisions can be made,” Włostowski warned, pointing to U.S. energy companies demanding guarantees before committing to Venezuela. South America, he added, remains largely united behind the agreement. Brazil and Argentina support it strongly, while ideological differences matter less than strategic urgency. “If Europe hesitates too long, others will shape the rules,” Włostowski concluded. “And that would be Europe’s loss.”
