The return of hard-power politics is no longer a theoretical debate for Europe. From U.S. military action in Venezuela to President Donald Trump’s renewed pressure over Greenland, long-standing assumptions about a rules-based international order are being openly tested as geopolitical competition sharpens. Sir Robin Niblett, Distinguished Fellow at Chatham House, told TVP World’s On the Record that the Trump administration represents a fundamental break with decades of U.S. alliance policy. “This is a U.S. administration that believes in ‘might is right,’” Niblett said. “The view of President Trump himself is that alliances are sources of leverage, not sources of solidarity.” According to Niblett, Washington increasingly sees its allies not as partners but as weaker actors to be pressured. “If you are the most powerful country in an alliance, then you should get something for it,” he said. “Your allies are the weaker members in that relationship — countries that can be dominated and bent to the will of the United States.” While the U.S. has long acted selectively toward international law, Niblett added that earlier administrations still believed alliances strengthened American power. “Republican and Democratic presidents alike believed that paying the costs of alliances served America’s security and economic interests,” he said. “That logic has now been replaced by a far more transactional approach.” The shift has alarming implications for Europe. Former MI6 chief Alex Younger recently warned that “if you don’t possess hard power, you don’t get a vote.” Niblett agreed, arguing that no European state can defend itself alone. “Britain, France, Germany, Poland — none of us can take care of our security by ourselves in confrontation with China, Russia or even the United States,” he said. He welcomed increased defense spending in countries such as Poland and Germany but cautioned that building credible military capability takes time. “Declarations are one thing,” Niblett said. “It will take two to five years before that investment becomes deployable, trained and usable.” On Ukraine, Niblett sided with Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, calling the EU’s €90 billion support package a strategic breakthrough. “Ninety billion euros over two years is a significant sum,” he said. “Most importantly, it will drive much deeper integration between the Ukrainian and European defense industries.” Niblett warned that abandoning the principle that borders cannot be changed by force risks global instability. “This is exactly the lesson Europe learned through the catastrophes of the First and Second World Wars,” he said. “Once you open that can of worms, bigger countries start taking pieces of smaller ones — and that is a recipe for a far more dangerous world.”
