Ukraine’s economy has proven unexpectedly resilient despite almost four years of full-scale war, but any lasting recovery will depend on security, territory and Europe’s resolve, economist Anders Åslund has told TVP World. Speaking on the World Talks program, Åslund said Ukraine has stabilized inflation at around 10% and returned to modest growth after a 29% contraction in 2022. He credited continued economic activity, functioning trade routes in the Black Sea, and substantial European financial support for keeping the country afloat, even as Kyiv spends roughly half of its GDP on defense. But Åslund, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, warned that reconstruction cannot begin in earnest while Russia continues to attack civilian infrastructure—particularly the power grid—or while the future of eastern Ukraine remains unresolved. The Donbas, long considered Ukraine’s industrial heartland, remains at the center of fighting. Åslund was sharply critical of suggestions that Russia could play a role in postwar rebuilding, calling the idea “absurd” given Moscow’s systematic destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure. He also questioned Washington’s current posture, arguing that Europe—not the United States—is now carrying the financial burden of supporting Ukraine. According to Åslund, the European Union’s recent multibillion-euro commitments have effectively secured Ukraine’s budget for the coming years, helping to limit inflation and sustain growth. But he said Europe must go further by asserting itself diplomatically and setting clear boundaries with the United States if Ukraine’s recovery is to be viable. “Reconstruction,” Åslund argued, “is not just about money—it is about security, sovereignty and political clarity.”
