Russia’s economy has proven far more resilient under Western sanctions than many initially expected, raising difficult questions about how effective economic pressure has been in slowing the Kremlin’s war effort. Despite thousands of restrictions imposed since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has adapted rather than collapsed. “We should begin with the understanding that despite all the negative impact that sanctions do really have on the Russian economy, we still observe its resilience,” said Vira Konstantynova, a former foreign policy adviser to the chairman of Ukraine’s parliament. “That’s definitely the issue.” She argued on TVP World’s Eastern Express that while sanctions have significantly reduced Russia’s access to Western finance and technology, their impact has been uneven. “From one side, we do see the resilience of the Russian economy in the short run,” she said. “But in the long run, it wouldn’t be so effective.” Konstantynova pointed to three pillars supporting Russia’s wartime endurance. “First of all, it’s definitely a war-style life and economy that Russia introduced since February 2022,” she said, arguing that the Kremlin has effectively “created the circumstances for doing business using the war.” The second pillar remains energy revenues. “Despite all decisions already taken by our European partners, we still observe Russian energy flows into Europe and vice versa,” she said, adding that energy income “is still on the table” for Moscow. The third pillar, she said, lies in political structure. “It’s a command-and-control toolkit that Russia still has because it is an authoritarian regime,” Konstantynova explained, pointing to centralized decision-making on inflation risks, currency controls, and economic mobilization. She said the energy pillar was the most vulnerable. “Energy is the key for everything,” she said, stressing that gaps in sanctions enforcement remain. “We still see third countries that continue to help Russia with revenues, energy revenues first of all, and continue to deal with Russian business.” At the same time, Konstantynova cautioned that Moscow had prepared for sanctions long before the invasion. “The Kremlin was ready for the consequences of its aggression,” she said, citing shadow fleets and economic networks developed with partners such as Iran. Looking ahead, she warned that Russia’s war economy cannot expand indefinitely. “In the long-term run, the Russian economy, under the pressure of war and sanctions, would collapse,” she said, noting declining energy revenues and mounting structural pressures. On the domestic front, she described a system increasingly locked into wartime logic. “Russian leadership has created a business using this war,” Konstantynova said. “From the Russian perspective, there is no option right now to stop this war.” Her conclusion was stark: “This war is not the war of Putin,” she said. “It’s the war of the Russian nation.”
