One route, the Northern Sea Route along Russia’s Arctic coast, is becoming increasingly navigable and offers significantly shorter shipping times between Europe and Asia. But the strategic shift is also creating geopolitical suspicion. Russia has expanded its military presence in the Arctic, building new bases and deploying advanced naval assets to consolidate control over key passages. Iceland, a NATO member with a strategic location in the North Atlantic, is now revising its defense posture amid fears of heightened Russian activity in the region. “Our security environment is changing rapidly,” said one Icelandic official, explaining that the twin pressures of climate change and great-power competition are reshaping the region. Experts warn that the Arctic’s transformation could lead to contested waters, surveillance crises and risks to undersea infrastructure.
