Politicians are jockeying for position not only in the Polish presidential elections scheduled for May but also for future government positions, with the current head of state reportedly being touted as a possible prime minister.
The Polish edition of Newsweek cited what it described as sources in the presidential palace as saying that the current president, Andrzej Duda, is being considered as a possible premier.
That could only happen if the current centrist premier, Donald Tusk, loses parliamentary elections scheduled for 2027.
Duda is an ally of the nationalist-populist Law and Justice (PiS), which is now the main opposition party, and which governed for eight years until 2023.
The latest opinion polls put Tusk’s ruling center-right Civic Coalition (KO) grouping just 5 percentage points ahead of PiS.
In the event of a general election, KO are projected to win around 200 seats in the 460-seat lowers house, the Sejm. PiS could count on 160, while their closest political bedfellows, the far-right Confederation party, would currently get 90.
This has prompted speculation that PiS could strike a coalition deal with Confederation in an attempt to regain power, despite a senior Confederation figure recently emphasizing that the parties are rivals with fundamental policy differences.
If such a coalition was formed, however, former PiS prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki would not be in the running for head of government because he’s disliked by many in Confederation, Newsweek reported.
The weekly added that the head of Duda’s office, Marcin Mastalerek, is sounding out Confederation on whether the conservative Duda would be an acceptable alternative as prime minister in a potential future right-wing government.
The scenario is speculative and depends on the political situation two years hence. In the meantime, there will be ample political gameplay surrounding the presidential race.
The frontrunner is Civic Coalition candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, with 31.3% support, according to a late-March survey by the Research Partner pollster.
Marginally behind Trzaskowski is the PiS candidate, Karol Nawrocki, on 29.1%, the same poll shows. However, other surveys give Trzaskowski a bigger lead.
In third place is the Confederation runner, Sławomir Mentzen, who commands 14.1% of the vote. The results suggest that no candidate would achieve the 50% needed for a first-round victory, leaving the race open to a run-off in June.
