Ratings agency Fitch has affirmed Poland’s long-term foreign currency rating at ‘A-’ with a stable outlook, citing a “large, diversified and resilient economy” but warning of fiscal deficits and governance challenges.
Poland’s public finances have deteriorated, leading the European Commission to launch an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) in 2024, the agency said.
Fitch estimates the general government deficit rose to 6.2% of GDP, “more than double the 'A' peer median of 2.8%.” The agency forecasts a gradual decline to 5.0% in 2026 and 3.7% by 2028 but warns of risks from “potential fiscal slippage” due to elections.
Government debt increased to 54.3% of GDP in 2024 from 49.7% in 2023, with military spending expected to rise to 5% of GDP. “Continued primary deficits and net issuance of guarantees will push debt to 61.6% in 2026,” Fitch noted.
Economic growth was revised down to 3.1% in both 2025 and 2026 due to U.S. tariffs on eurozone trade, though domestic consumption and EU funds may offset the impact, Fitch analysts predicted.
The 2023 elections improved Poland’s EU relations but sparked institutional clashes, Fitch noted, warning that the opposition’s control of the presidency “can challenge policy implementation.”
Fitch said an upgrade would require “fiscal consolidation, improved governance, and sustained higher GDP growth,” while failure to consolidate or a growth slowdown could lead to a downgrade.
Fitch estimates the general government deficit rose to 6.2% of GDP, “more than double the 'A' peer median of 2.8%.” The agency forecasts a gradual decline to 5.0% in 2026 and 3.7% by 2028 but warns of risks from “potential fiscal slippage” due to elections.
Government debt increased to 54.3% of GDP in 2024 from 49.7% in 2023, with military spending expected to rise to 5% of GDP. “Continued primary deficits and net issuance of guarantees will push debt to 61.6% in 2026,” Fitch noted.
Economic growth was revised down to 3.1% in both 2025 and 2026 due to U.S. tariffs on eurozone trade, though domestic consumption and EU funds may offset the impact, Fitch analysts predicted.
The 2023 elections improved Poland’s EU relations but sparked institutional clashes, Fitch noted, warning that the opposition’s control of the presidency “can challenge policy implementation.”
Fitch said an upgrade would require “fiscal consolidation, improved governance, and sustained higher GDP growth,” while failure to consolidate or a growth slowdown could lead to a downgrade.
