Populist and anti-establishment parties in Romania are hoping to profit from an apparent surge in support for the far-right ahead of this Sunday’s general election.
The election comes as Romania battles a maelstrom of political chaos, uncertainty and accusations of fraud triggered by the result of the first round of the presidential election last weekend.
In what has been described as a “seismic shock” to the Romanian political environment, Călin Georgescu, an independent candidate with ultra-nationalistic and pro-Russia leanings, stormed to victory despite having got only single figures in opinion polls prior to the election.
Elena Lasconi, a candidate from the center-right Union to Save Romania (USR), came second by a hair’s breadth, ahead of Marcel Ciolacu, the prime minister and pre-vote favorite. Ciolacu was the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), which shares power with the National Liberal Party (PNL).
But owing to allegations of fraud and untoward political influence, the result of the first round is not yet set in stone. Romania’s Constitutional Court has ordered a recount, and it is possible that the vote may be declared void.
Against this turbulent backdrop, the country votes on Sunday for a new government. For a while it was expected that the PSD-PNL “grand coalition” would sail into another term as Romania embraced a stable, if uninspiring, future.
This has changed. The far-right and populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), perhaps turbocharged by Georgescu’s win, has surged into the lead with 22% of the vote, with the PSD coming second on 21.4%, according to an opinion poll published by AtlasIntel this week.
In what has been described as a “seismic shock” to the Romanian political environment, Călin Georgescu, an independent candidate with ultra-nationalistic and pro-Russia leanings, stormed to victory despite having got only single figures in opinion polls prior to the election.
Elena Lasconi, a candidate from the center-right Union to Save Romania (USR), came second by a hair’s breadth, ahead of Marcel Ciolacu, the prime minister and pre-vote favorite. Ciolacu was the candidate of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), which shares power with the National Liberal Party (PNL).
But owing to allegations of fraud and untoward political influence, the result of the first round is not yet set in stone. Romania’s Constitutional Court has ordered a recount, and it is possible that the vote may be declared void.
Against this turbulent backdrop, the country votes on Sunday for a new government. For a while it was expected that the PSD-PNL “grand coalition” would sail into another term as Romania embraced a stable, if uninspiring, future.
This has changed. The far-right and populist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), perhaps turbocharged by Georgescu’s win, has surged into the lead with 22% of the vote, with the PSD coming second on 21.4%, according to an opinion poll published by AtlasIntel this week.
On top of this, according to the poll, the Party of Young People (POT), a party supporting Georgescu that was unknown until recently, could enter parliament with 5%, while the far-right SOS Romania party could also scoop 5%.
All this could give the collective anti-establishment, populist right a total of about 30%. This means it will probably be unable to form a government given the PSD’s total and that the USR is expected to get 17.5% while the PNL could scoop 13.4%.
But much like in France, where the National Rally is the single largest parliamentary opposition party, the far-right could exert influence over legislation and the legislative process.
This narrative also assumes the polls are correct, but what happened last Sunday demonstrates that they can get it wrong, and by a considerable margin.
The first-round presidential election also revealed that there appears to be a deep pool of voters in Romania who are willing to vote for the far right as a means of venting their frustration with the politicians and parties they believe have failed to address their concerns and left them feeling disenfranchised.
Another shock could be just around the corner and more uncertainty beckons.
All this could give the collective anti-establishment, populist right a total of about 30%. This means it will probably be unable to form a government given the PSD’s total and that the USR is expected to get 17.5% while the PNL could scoop 13.4%.
But much like in France, where the National Rally is the single largest parliamentary opposition party, the far-right could exert influence over legislation and the legislative process.
This narrative also assumes the polls are correct, but what happened last Sunday demonstrates that they can get it wrong, and by a considerable margin.
The first-round presidential election also revealed that there appears to be a deep pool of voters in Romania who are willing to vote for the far right as a means of venting their frustration with the politicians and parties they believe have failed to address their concerns and left them feeling disenfranchised.
Another shock could be just around the corner and more uncertainty beckons.
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