Exit polls show that the mainstream left-wing Socialist Democratic Party (SPD) won the local elections in the east German state of Brandenburg. If the results stand, SPD may be able to form a coalition with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
According to the exit poll published immediately after voting concluded at 6 p.m. local time (GMT 1600) and conducted for ZDF, one of Germany’s public broadcaster, SPD won the largest share of votes across the state of Brandenburg.
As votes are being counted and the situation clarifies, the social democrats are projected to win 30.9% of the vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in second and is projected to gain 29.4% of the votes, while the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) took 13.4% of the vote. Germany’s mainstream center-right opposition came in fourth, with 12.0%.
Polls conducted ahead of the vote indicated AfD might even win the elections in the state.
If the current results stand, it means that one of SPD’s coalition partners in the federal parliament, the Greens, fell below the 5% threshold with just 4.1%. The Left, a party more off-center than the SPD and just like AfD and BSW (which split from it) popular mostly in the communist former East Germany, took 3.0%. The liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) SPD’s other coalition partner, had a vote count too insignificant to be included in the published poll results separately.
Translated into the division of seats in the 88-seat Brandenburg legislature, this means SPD will have 32 seats, AfD 30, BSW 14, and CDU 12.
SPD has governed the state surrounding the capital Berlin since reunification in 1990. As mainstream parties, which include both SPD and CDU, have voiced their intention to block the possibility of AfD coming into power, the likeliest scenario is that the social democrats and the conservatives will join to form a coalition.
It is not uncommon to see a coalition between SPD and CDU and furthermore, coalitions on the state level need not follow the arrangements in the Bundestag, the federal parliament.
However, unless the projections change, with exactly 44 seats the two parties are one seat short of securing the 45-seat majority.
As votes are being counted and the situation clarifies, the social democrats are projected to win 30.9% of the vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came in second and is projected to gain 29.4% of the votes, while the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) took 13.4% of the vote. Germany’s mainstream center-right opposition came in fourth, with 12.0%.
Polls conducted ahead of the vote indicated AfD might even win the elections in the state.
If the current results stand, it means that one of SPD’s coalition partners in the federal parliament, the Greens, fell below the 5% threshold with just 4.1%. The Left, a party more off-center than the SPD and just like AfD and BSW (which split from it) popular mostly in the communist former East Germany, took 3.0%. The liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) SPD’s other coalition partner, had a vote count too insignificant to be included in the published poll results separately.
Translated into the division of seats in the 88-seat Brandenburg legislature, this means SPD will have 32 seats, AfD 30, BSW 14, and CDU 12.
SPD has governed the state surrounding the capital Berlin since reunification in 1990. As mainstream parties, which include both SPD and CDU, have voiced their intention to block the possibility of AfD coming into power, the likeliest scenario is that the social democrats and the conservatives will join to form a coalition.
It is not uncommon to see a coalition between SPD and CDU and furthermore, coalitions on the state level need not follow the arrangements in the Bundestag, the federal parliament.
However, unless the projections change, with exactly 44 seats the two parties are one seat short of securing the 45-seat majority.
AfD still on the rise
Although the results of the Sunday vote mean AfD will likely be kept away from power in Brandenburg, it can nonetheless be seen as a warning sign for moderate voters, as do national election polls.
The SPD is polling just 15% at the national level, down from the 25.7% it scored in the 2021 federal election. That is behind the AfD at around 20% and opposition conservatives at 32%.
The victory in Brandenburg could give Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the SPD a slight reprieve from party discussions about his suitability as its chancellor candidate for the federal election scheduled for September 2025, given his unpopularity with voters.
It is unlikely, however, to give him or his party a major boost given the popular, incumbent SPD premier Dietmar Woidke had distanced himself from Scholz during the campaign and criticized the federal government’s policies.
“Dietmar Woidke and his Brandenburg SPD have made a furious comeback in recent weeks,” said SPD party general secretary Kevin Kühnert.
“For us in the federal SPD, this evening, if things go well, the problems that lie ahead of us will not have gotten any bigger. But they have not gotten any smaller either,” he said.
Three-quarters of those who voted for the SPD did not do so out of conviction but rather to fend off the AfD, according to the exit poll published by Germany’s other public broadcaster ARD. Turnout rose to 73% from 61% five years ago, according to ZDF.
The vote in Brandenburg comes three weeks after the Russia-friendly AfD became the first far-right party to top a state election in Germany since World War Two, in Thuringia conducted ahead of the vote indicated AfD might even win the elections in the state. It also performed strongly in neighboring Saxony, coming hot on the heels of the conservatives in second place.
Woidke warned against complacency, noting the AfD was still gaining momentum.
AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla noted the AfD had made strong gains among young voters - a trend that was reflected for far-right parties across Europe in the EU elections in June.
The SPD is polling just 15% at the national level, down from the 25.7% it scored in the 2021 federal election. That is behind the AfD at around 20% and opposition conservatives at 32%.
The victory in Brandenburg could give Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the SPD a slight reprieve from party discussions about his suitability as its chancellor candidate for the federal election scheduled for September 2025, given his unpopularity with voters.
It is unlikely, however, to give him or his party a major boost given the popular, incumbent SPD premier Dietmar Woidke had distanced himself from Scholz during the campaign and criticized the federal government’s policies.
“Dietmar Woidke and his Brandenburg SPD have made a furious comeback in recent weeks,” said SPD party general secretary Kevin Kühnert.
“For us in the federal SPD, this evening, if things go well, the problems that lie ahead of us will not have gotten any bigger. But they have not gotten any smaller either,” he said.
Three-quarters of those who voted for the SPD did not do so out of conviction but rather to fend off the AfD, according to the exit poll published by Germany’s other public broadcaster ARD. Turnout rose to 73% from 61% five years ago, according to ZDF.
The vote in Brandenburg comes three weeks after the Russia-friendly AfD became the first far-right party to top a state election in Germany since World War Two, in Thuringia conducted ahead of the vote indicated AfD might even win the elections in the state. It also performed strongly in neighboring Saxony, coming hot on the heels of the conservatives in second place.
Woidke warned against complacency, noting the AfD was still gaining momentum.
AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla noted the AfD had made strong gains among young voters - a trend that was reflected for far-right parties across Europe in the EU elections in June.
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