Three key EU positions that need to be filled following the European Parliament (EP) elections are likely to be discussed by European leaders at the coming G7 summit, to be held in Italy on June 13–15.
The meeting of the world’s seven leading economies—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K., and the United States—will focus on the countries’ policies towards the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Also on the agenda will be migration, with a particular focus on Africa, economic security, and artificial intelligence.
The talks will be the first major international forum hosted by the Italian government since Giorgia Meloni became prime minister in 2022. Meloni is president of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) faction in the European Parliament and is representative of a shift to the right in European politics, as evidenced by the elections over the weekend.
Despite strong gains by right-wing and nationalist groupings, the elections were won by the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), of which the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is a member. Her job is one of three key EU leadership positions that need to be filled for the upcoming term, along with the president of the European Council and the high representative for foreign affairs and security policy.
Candidates for the three posts are likely to be discussed at informal meetings of the three European countries at the summit. Von der Leyen will also be in attendance, as will the current EU Council president, Charles Michel.
In addition to heading the EU’s three largest economies, the leaders of Italy, France, and Germany—Meloni, Emmanuel Macron, and Olaf Scholz—also represent different EP factions. Scholtz serves as the lead negotiator for the Socialists and Democrats, Macron is in the liberal Renew group, and Meloni heads the ECR; the second, third, and fourth-placed groupings in the EP.
As a member of the assembly’s largest party, von der Leyen has a strong case to hold a second term as Commission president, as the EPP’s president, Manfred Weber, told the Financial Times.
“When they are sitting together, I would invite Scholz and Macron to be clear on respecting the outcome of the election,” Weber said.
Europe’s changing political landscape
Informal talks between the four at the G7 will be complicated by the outcome of the EP elections, however. While Meloni is likely to feel bolstered by the gains of the right wing, those same advances have damaged the domestic parties of both Macron and Scholtz. In France, Macron’s liberal-centrist Renaissance party garnered less than half the votes of far-right rival Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, a result that caused Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and call snap elections.
Meanwhile, in Germany, Olaf Scholz was pressured to do the same thing after his Social Democrats recorded their worst election result in over a century. The other parties in Berlin’s left-leaning coalition government were similarly hit by the victorious center-right Christian Democrats and the second-placed extreme-right party Alternative for Germany, which recorded 16% support, a 5 percentage-point increase from 2019.
Macron’s political woes in particular have shaken von der Leyen’s team, who are concerned that political uncertainty at home may force his hand in Brussels.
“We were worried that the French result [in the EP vote] would force him to take drastic action, either at home or in the EU space,” a source close to the von der Leyen campaign told the FT. “Ultimately, the election creates a lot of unknowns and uncertainty, and that’s not ideal from our point of view.”
Macron has not formally endorsed the current EC president for re-election, but a French official was quoted by the FT as saying: “The EPP won the elections. They have the right to nominate the president of the commission… The likelihood of a von der Leyen coalition of Renew, the Socialists, and the EPP has increased.”
Scholz is a surer bet, as his coalition government agreement specifies that he has to back von der Leyen for the Commission's top job. Both the Scholz and Macron camps have warned von der Leyen against striking a deal with Meloni.
The remaining posts are also sure to be keenly contested as political factions vie for influence at the EU’s helm. The Council presidency is reportedly being eyed by the Socialist and Democrats, and Portugal’s former prime minister, António Costa, is widely tipped for the job. Meanwhile, the foreign policy portfolio is seen as likely to go to a liberal, with the outgoing Belgian prime minister, Alexander De Croo, and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas both seen as being in the front running.
Whatever the outcome of preliminary talks at the G7 summit, they will be followed by an informal EU meeting on June 17 and then by a full summit in Brussels on June 28–29. This process should whittle the field down to its final candidates, which will then require qualified majority backing by 15 of the 27 member state leaders jointly representing at least 65% of the bloc’s population. In addition, the composition of the next 27-person European Commission and its president also requires a majority vote in the European Parliament.
The first post-election sitting of the new European Parliament is scheduled for July 16.
The talks will be the first major international forum hosted by the Italian government since Giorgia Meloni became prime minister in 2022. Meloni is president of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) faction in the European Parliament and is representative of a shift to the right in European politics, as evidenced by the elections over the weekend.
Despite strong gains by right-wing and nationalist groupings, the elections were won by the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), of which the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is a member. Her job is one of three key EU leadership positions that need to be filled for the upcoming term, along with the president of the European Council and the high representative for foreign affairs and security policy.
Candidates for the three posts are likely to be discussed at informal meetings of the three European countries at the summit. Von der Leyen will also be in attendance, as will the current EU Council president, Charles Michel.
In addition to heading the EU’s three largest economies, the leaders of Italy, France, and Germany—Meloni, Emmanuel Macron, and Olaf Scholz—also represent different EP factions. Scholtz serves as the lead negotiator for the Socialists and Democrats, Macron is in the liberal Renew group, and Meloni heads the ECR; the second, third, and fourth-placed groupings in the EP.
As a member of the assembly’s largest party, von der Leyen has a strong case to hold a second term as Commission president, as the EPP’s president, Manfred Weber, told the Financial Times.
“When they are sitting together, I would invite Scholz and Macron to be clear on respecting the outcome of the election,” Weber said.
Europe’s changing political landscape
Informal talks between the four at the G7 will be complicated by the outcome of the EP elections, however. While Meloni is likely to feel bolstered by the gains of the right wing, those same advances have damaged the domestic parties of both Macron and Scholtz. In France, Macron’s liberal-centrist Renaissance party garnered less than half the votes of far-right rival Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, a result that caused Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and call snap elections.
Meanwhile, in Germany, Olaf Scholz was pressured to do the same thing after his Social Democrats recorded their worst election result in over a century. The other parties in Berlin’s left-leaning coalition government were similarly hit by the victorious center-right Christian Democrats and the second-placed extreme-right party Alternative for Germany, which recorded 16% support, a 5 percentage-point increase from 2019.
Macron’s political woes in particular have shaken von der Leyen’s team, who are concerned that political uncertainty at home may force his hand in Brussels.
“We were worried that the French result [in the EP vote] would force him to take drastic action, either at home or in the EU space,” a source close to the von der Leyen campaign told the FT. “Ultimately, the election creates a lot of unknowns and uncertainty, and that’s not ideal from our point of view.”
Macron has not formally endorsed the current EC president for re-election, but a French official was quoted by the FT as saying: “The EPP won the elections. They have the right to nominate the president of the commission… The likelihood of a von der Leyen coalition of Renew, the Socialists, and the EPP has increased.”
Scholz is a surer bet, as his coalition government agreement specifies that he has to back von der Leyen for the Commission's top job. Both the Scholz and Macron camps have warned von der Leyen against striking a deal with Meloni.
The remaining posts are also sure to be keenly contested as political factions vie for influence at the EU’s helm. The Council presidency is reportedly being eyed by the Socialist and Democrats, and Portugal’s former prime minister, António Costa, is widely tipped for the job. Meanwhile, the foreign policy portfolio is seen as likely to go to a liberal, with the outgoing Belgian prime minister, Alexander De Croo, and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas both seen as being in the front running.
Whatever the outcome of preliminary talks at the G7 summit, they will be followed by an informal EU meeting on June 17 and then by a full summit in Brussels on June 28–29. This process should whittle the field down to its final candidates, which will then require qualified majority backing by 15 of the 27 member state leaders jointly representing at least 65% of the bloc’s population. In addition, the composition of the next 27-person European Commission and its president also requires a majority vote in the European Parliament.
The first post-election sitting of the new European Parliament is scheduled for July 16.
Source: Financial Times, BBC, Reuters, Politico
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