As football fever sweeps Europe ahead of the Euro 2024 tournament, predictions made by the Opta supercomputer have reminded Polish fans, and several others across Central Eastern Europe, of the Herculean task that lies ahead.
Regarded as the world’s leading sports prediction tool, Opta uses state-of-the-art AI models and deep and detailed data engines to provide often prescient insights and analysis. Published yesterday, their forecast for Euro 2024 has, however, clipped the optimism of many.
Pitted against France, Austria, and the Netherlands in Group D, Poland have been given just an 8.3% chance of topping their table compared to Austria’s 9.3%, Holland’s 24%, and France’s 57.9%.
Making for dismal reading, according to Opta’s simulations, Poland have the highest chance (41.8%) of all teams to finish at the bottom of their group.
Yet in spite of the seemingly doomsday predictions, the computer gave Poland a 45% chance of making the last 16.
Even so, the Eagles enter the tournament as rank outsiders, handed just a 0.8% chance of winning the competition. Of the 24 teams taking part, only Czechia, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Albania, and Georgia were regarded as more unlikely to win.
At the other end of the table, England are favorites to win, with the supercomputer giving them a 19.9% chance of lifting the trophy. France, at 19.1%, stands to push them close, while hosts Germany (12.4%) also can’t be discounted. Other strong contenders include Spain (9.6%) and Portugal (9.2%).
Defending champions Italy, meanwhile, have been given a 5% chance of retaining their title.
The Opta computer conducted 10,000 simulations before delivering its calculations, with Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia, and Scotland all predicted to have a slightly higher chance than Poland’s White and Reds.
Perhaps a better indicator will emerge in the next few days. Before departing for Germany, Poland will face Ukraine (June 7) and Turkey (June 10) as coach Michał Probierz looks to sharpen his side in a final round of friendlies.
Pitted against France, Austria, and the Netherlands in Group D, Poland have been given just an 8.3% chance of topping their table compared to Austria’s 9.3%, Holland’s 24%, and France’s 57.9%.
Making for dismal reading, according to Opta’s simulations, Poland have the highest chance (41.8%) of all teams to finish at the bottom of their group.
Yet in spite of the seemingly doomsday predictions, the computer gave Poland a 45% chance of making the last 16.
Even so, the Eagles enter the tournament as rank outsiders, handed just a 0.8% chance of winning the competition. Of the 24 teams taking part, only Czechia, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Albania, and Georgia were regarded as more unlikely to win.
At the other end of the table, England are favorites to win, with the supercomputer giving them a 19.9% chance of lifting the trophy. France, at 19.1%, stands to push them close, while hosts Germany (12.4%) also can’t be discounted. Other strong contenders include Spain (9.6%) and Portugal (9.2%).
Defending champions Italy, meanwhile, have been given a 5% chance of retaining their title.
The Opta computer conducted 10,000 simulations before delivering its calculations, with Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia, and Scotland all predicted to have a slightly higher chance than Poland’s White and Reds.
Perhaps a better indicator will emerge in the next few days. Before departing for Germany, Poland will face Ukraine (June 7) and Turkey (June 10) as coach Michał Probierz looks to sharpen his side in a final round of friendlies.
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