Matthew Kroenig, vice-president of the Atlantic Council, told Lithuanian public broadcaster LRT that NATO lacks a unified strategy on Ukraine and might need to consider a new approach where only parts of the country are admitted into the alliance.
Kroenig, a professor at Georgetown University and director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, has authored numerous books and articles on international security.
When asked about the political processes in the West in relation to the current situation surrounding Ukraine, he said the West had been “too slow and too cautious.”
“If Ukraine can hold in 2024, that would be a success, and then maybe try a new counteroffensive in 2025,” he said.
When asked about the political processes in the West in relation to the current situation surrounding Ukraine, he said the West had been “too slow and too cautious.”
“If Ukraine can hold in 2024, that would be a success, and then maybe try a new counteroffensive in 2025,” he said.
“But then, if that doesn't work, I do think that we need to think about a strategy that would wind the conflict down, bring the western part of Ukraine into NATO, and then work diplomatically to bring the rest in later,” he went on to say.
Lack of coherent strategy
Kroenig suggested that the West, in particular the U.S., lacked a coherent strategy over Ukraine.
“After the October 7 attacks in Israel, Biden gave this speech where he kind of tied Israel and Ukraine together, but it was confusing. I don't think we've even really had a very clear statement from the White House about its strategy and what success would look like,” he said.
When the professor was asked why there was a lack of strategy, he asserted that there is a fear of the fallout from a Ukrainian victory.
“In October 2022, when Ukraine was making the greatest battlefield advances, the nuclear threats were highest, and some U.S. officials estimated that the risk of nuclear war at that time was something like 50:50,” he said.
“So I think there are differences within the administration, and I'm not sure what a successful endgame for Biden would look like,” he added.
Kroenig, however, noted that there is a goal emerging.
“I think there is agreement that Ukraine should emerge from the war independent, capable of defending itself, and anchored in the West. But the disagreement is over how much territory they need to take back to do that,” he stated.
“If the goal is a Ukraine independent, maybe not with all of its internationally recognized territory, but then the war winds down and we can bring it into NATO and the EU, I think many people would consider that a success,” he added.
NATO membership
With regard to potential future NATO membership for Ukraine, Kroenig laid out the necessary conditions.
“For Ukraine to be secure and for that part of Europe to be stable, it will either need to be in NATO or have bilateral security guarantees with the United States,” he said.
“I think we should do things that are going to help Ukraine prepare for eventual NATO membership, like more military interoperability,... maybe invite Ukrainian officials to participate in NATO meetings the way we did with Finland and Sweden before they joined the alliance,” the professor said.
Lack of coherent strategy
Kroenig suggested that the West, in particular the U.S., lacked a coherent strategy over Ukraine.
“After the October 7 attacks in Israel, Biden gave this speech where he kind of tied Israel and Ukraine together, but it was confusing. I don't think we've even really had a very clear statement from the White House about its strategy and what success would look like,” he said.
When the professor was asked why there was a lack of strategy, he asserted that there is a fear of the fallout from a Ukrainian victory.
“In October 2022, when Ukraine was making the greatest battlefield advances, the nuclear threats were highest, and some U.S. officials estimated that the risk of nuclear war at that time was something like 50:50,” he said.
“So I think there are differences within the administration, and I'm not sure what a successful endgame for Biden would look like,” he added.
Kroenig, however, noted that there is a goal emerging.
“I think there is agreement that Ukraine should emerge from the war independent, capable of defending itself, and anchored in the West. But the disagreement is over how much territory they need to take back to do that,” he stated.
“If the goal is a Ukraine independent, maybe not with all of its internationally recognized territory, but then the war winds down and we can bring it into NATO and the EU, I think many people would consider that a success,” he added.
NATO membership
With regard to potential future NATO membership for Ukraine, Kroenig laid out the necessary conditions.
“For Ukraine to be secure and for that part of Europe to be stable, it will either need to be in NATO or have bilateral security guarantees with the United States,” he said.
“I think we should do things that are going to help Ukraine prepare for eventual NATO membership, like more military interoperability,... maybe invite Ukrainian officials to participate in NATO meetings the way we did with Finland and Sweden before they joined the alliance,” the professor said.
Source: LRT
