The current, limited Russian offensive actions in the north of the Kharkiv region have the strategic objective of diverting Ukrainian forces from other fronts, according to the latest report by the American Think tank, the ISW.
The ISW conducted an extensive analysis of the offensive actions initiated by the Russian army in the north of the Kharkiv region on Friday. According to experts, these actions are currently of a limited nature and do not suggest a large-scale operation aimed at encircling and capturing the city.
At this stage, the ISW suggests that the Russian forces are likely attempting to push the Ukrainians away from the border of the Belgorod region. Their goal appears to be to advance their forces closer to Kharkiv, within artillery range.
“On Friday morning, Russian forces initiated offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in the north of the Kharkiv region, achieving significant tactical gains. This is likely the initial phase of an offensive with limited operational objectives. Strategically, it appears to be intended to divert Ukrainian forces from other critical fronts in eastern Ukraine,” as assessed by the ISW.
The Russians carried out two limited operations near the town of Lypcy and one near Volchansk. According to reports from the Ukrainian side, the attacks involved assault infantry groups supported by armored weapons. At the same time, the Russians significantly escalated aerial bombardments and made extensive use of artillery and rocket fire.
According to the majority of Ukrainian and Russian sources, the Russians have succeeded in occupying the border villages of Striletsia, Krasne, and Pylna, as well as possibly Borysivka. The Russians have also advanced towards Volchansk, although the extent of their penetration is not entirely clear.
The ISW anticipates that the invading forces will attempt to amplify their tactical gains through additional attacks. Their objective is likely to push the Ukrainians back and advance close enough to Kharkiv to bring it within artillery range.
Think tank noted, based on available recordings, that the Russians have deployed relatively small forces and a limited amount of equipment in the northern attacks. Earlier information suggests that in this region, the invaders have amassed forces numbering between 35,000 and 50,000 and likely possess the capability to escalate the intensity of attacks in this direction. The ISW also cited information from Ukrainian and Western media, suggesting that the Russians intend to create a 10-kilometer buffer zone along the border. This would push the Ukrainians beyond the range of artillery from the Russian logistical base in the Belgorod region, as well as bring them a similar distance to Kharkiv.
At present, Russian forces are approximately 30 kilometers from the city’s borders.
At this stage, the ISW suggests that the Russian forces are likely attempting to push the Ukrainians away from the border of the Belgorod region. Their goal appears to be to advance their forces closer to Kharkiv, within artillery range.
“On Friday morning, Russian forces initiated offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in the north of the Kharkiv region, achieving significant tactical gains. This is likely the initial phase of an offensive with limited operational objectives. Strategically, it appears to be intended to divert Ukrainian forces from other critical fronts in eastern Ukraine,” as assessed by the ISW.
The Russians carried out two limited operations near the town of Lypcy and one near Volchansk. According to reports from the Ukrainian side, the attacks involved assault infantry groups supported by armored weapons. At the same time, the Russians significantly escalated aerial bombardments and made extensive use of artillery and rocket fire.
According to the majority of Ukrainian and Russian sources, the Russians have succeeded in occupying the border villages of Striletsia, Krasne, and Pylna, as well as possibly Borysivka. The Russians have also advanced towards Volchansk, although the extent of their penetration is not entirely clear.
The ISW anticipates that the invading forces will attempt to amplify their tactical gains through additional attacks. Their objective is likely to push the Ukrainians back and advance close enough to Kharkiv to bring it within artillery range.
Think tank noted, based on available recordings, that the Russians have deployed relatively small forces and a limited amount of equipment in the northern attacks. Earlier information suggests that in this region, the invaders have amassed forces numbering between 35,000 and 50,000 and likely possess the capability to escalate the intensity of attacks in this direction. The ISW also cited information from Ukrainian and Western media, suggesting that the Russians intend to create a 10-kilometer buffer zone along the border. This would push the Ukrainians beyond the range of artillery from the Russian logistical base in the Belgorod region, as well as bring them a similar distance to Kharkiv.
At present, Russian forces are approximately 30 kilometers from the city’s borders.
Large scale operation unlikely right now
According to the ISW, the current limited actions of the Russian forces do not suggest an intention to launch a large-scale offensive on Kharkiv with the aim of encircling and capturing the city. While analysts acknowledge the possibility that these operations could be a precursor to a later offensive, they believe it would be “difficult” for the Russians to capture Kharkiv, should that be their plan.
Capturing Kharkiv would necessitate a large, complex campaign, including extensive travel across open terrain. Since the onset of the full-scale invasion in February–March 2022, the Russians have not conducted such a campaign. The ISW also questions whether the forces that the Russians have amassed possess the necessary combat capabilities. For instance, they argue that the elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army currently present have been unable to achieve tactical gains under Kupyansk for several months, despite conducting massive attacks there.
Analysts have also referenced assessments stating that a large-scale offensive on Kharkiv would require the Russians to have significantly larger forces than they currently possess in this direction. Various sources have suggested that an operation of this magnitude would necessitate forces numbering between 200,000 and 300,000 soldiers.
The ISW posits that the initiation of Russian actions in this direction is likely due to a “relatively short window of time” before Western aid arrives in Ukraine, a window that the Kremlin is aiming to maximize.
According to the ISW, the current limited actions of the Russian forces do not suggest an intention to launch a large-scale offensive on Kharkiv with the aim of encircling and capturing the city. While analysts acknowledge the possibility that these operations could be a precursor to a later offensive, they believe it would be “difficult” for the Russians to capture Kharkiv, should that be their plan.
Capturing Kharkiv would necessitate a large, complex campaign, including extensive travel across open terrain. Since the onset of the full-scale invasion in February–March 2022, the Russians have not conducted such a campaign. The ISW also questions whether the forces that the Russians have amassed possess the necessary combat capabilities. For instance, they argue that the elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army currently present have been unable to achieve tactical gains under Kupyansk for several months, despite conducting massive attacks there.
Analysts have also referenced assessments stating that a large-scale offensive on Kharkiv would require the Russians to have significantly larger forces than they currently possess in this direction. Various sources have suggested that an operation of this magnitude would necessitate forces numbering between 200,000 and 300,000 soldiers.
The ISW posits that the initiation of Russian actions in this direction is likely due to a “relatively short window of time” before Western aid arrives in Ukraine, a window that the Kremlin is aiming to maximize.
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