The Islamic State’s claim of responsibility for the terrorist attack near Moscow on Friday which left more than 140 fatalities is credible and aligns with the historical pattern of attacks conducted by Islamist militants, Czech security analyst Adam Dolnik said on Saturday.
Islamic State, also known as IS or ISIS, issued statements claiming responsibility for Friday evening’s attack in which more than 140 people were killed while more than 100 individuals were wounded, and published a photograph of the alleged gunmen.
Dolnik, who has studied past Islamist attacks in India, Kenya, Russia, and elsewhere, said the Islamic State claim appeared credible, although “that will not stop the Russians from leveraging this for their foreign policy agenda vis-a-vis Ukraine and the West”.
He further stated that attacks by marauding gunmen were a typical modus operandi in recent years for ISIS and al Qaeda.
The expert emphasized that the Islamic State has a record of previous attacks against Russia, including the bombing of a flight in 2015 and a 2022 attack on the Russian embassy in Kabul. Earlier this month, Russia’s FSB said it foiled an attack on a Moscow synagogue.
“If you line up all these things together, then I think it’s completely conceivable that this would be an IS attack,” he said.
The one element that was unusual was that the perpetrators had made their escape, he said - unlike typical Islamist militant attacks where the perpetrators go in prepared to die and expect to be shot in the end by security forces.
Russia has not said who it believes was behind the mass shooting, however, it released a statement - without providing evidence - saying that the perpetrators had contacts in Ukraine because the gunmen fled by car towards the Ukrainian border.
Ukraine, defending against Russia's invasion since 2022, has denied any involvement in the terrorist attack in Moscow.
Dolnik, who has studied past Islamist attacks in India, Kenya, Russia, and elsewhere, said the Islamic State claim appeared credible, although “that will not stop the Russians from leveraging this for their foreign policy agenda vis-a-vis Ukraine and the West”.
He further stated that attacks by marauding gunmen were a typical modus operandi in recent years for ISIS and al Qaeda.
The expert emphasized that the Islamic State has a record of previous attacks against Russia, including the bombing of a flight in 2015 and a 2022 attack on the Russian embassy in Kabul. Earlier this month, Russia’s FSB said it foiled an attack on a Moscow synagogue.
“If you line up all these things together, then I think it’s completely conceivable that this would be an IS attack,” he said.
The one element that was unusual was that the perpetrators had made their escape, he said - unlike typical Islamist militant attacks where the perpetrators go in prepared to die and expect to be shot in the end by security forces.
Russia has not said who it believes was behind the mass shooting, however, it released a statement - without providing evidence - saying that the perpetrators had contacts in Ukraine because the gunmen fled by car towards the Ukrainian border.
Ukraine, defending against Russia's invasion since 2022, has denied any involvement in the terrorist attack in Moscow.
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