According to a report published in the medical journal The Lancet, an international team comprising hundreds of researchers has found that half of all nations around the globe already have a fertility rate too low to sustain their current population size.
Utilizing extensive global data on births, deaths, and factors influencing fertility, the researchers sought to predict the future trajectory of the world's population.
According to a study conducted by the U.S.-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), by 2050, the population of three-quarters of all countries will be in decline.
The researchers project that by the end of the century, this will apply to 97% of countries and territories, totaling 198 out of 204.
According to a study conducted by the U.S.-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), by 2050, the population of three-quarters of all countries will be in decline.
The researchers project that by the end of the century, this will apply to 97% of countries and territories, totaling 198 out of 204.
The study estimates that only Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan will maintain fertility rates above the replacement level of 2.1 births per female by 2100.
Over the course of this century, fertility rates are expected to rise in developing countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, even as they decline in wealthier, aging nations.
“The world will simultaneously face a 'baby boom' in some countries and a 'baby bust' in others,” Senior study author Stein Emil Vollset of IHME remarked.
Natalia Bhattacharjee, a researcher at IHME, emphasized the profound implications of these trends, suggesting that they will necessitate significant societal reorganization to address shifts in the global economy and power dynamics.
Some experts have advocated for the restructuring of societies in order to incentivize couples in developed countries to have more children.
However, experts from the World Health Organization (WHO) cautioned against overinterpreting the projections, highlighting limitations in the models, particularly regarding data availability from many developing nations.
They advocated for a nuanced understanding of the figures, balancing between optimism and pessimism. Additionally, they noted the potential benefits of a smaller population, such as environmental and food security advantages, alongside drawbacks concerning labor supply, social security, and nationalistic geopolitics.
Teresa Castro Martin, a researcher at the Spanish National Research Council, underscored the speculative nature of these projections, noting disparities between the Lancet study's timeline for a global fertility rate below replacement levels (around 2030) and that predicted by the UN (around 2050).
The study, an update of IHME's Global Burden of Disease study, underscores the organization's role as a leading source for health statistics worldwide, established at the University of Washington with support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Over the course of this century, fertility rates are expected to rise in developing countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, even as they decline in wealthier, aging nations.
“The world will simultaneously face a 'baby boom' in some countries and a 'baby bust' in others,” Senior study author Stein Emil Vollset of IHME remarked.
Natalia Bhattacharjee, a researcher at IHME, emphasized the profound implications of these trends, suggesting that they will necessitate significant societal reorganization to address shifts in the global economy and power dynamics.
Some experts have advocated for the restructuring of societies in order to incentivize couples in developed countries to have more children.
However, experts from the World Health Organization (WHO) cautioned against overinterpreting the projections, highlighting limitations in the models, particularly regarding data availability from many developing nations.
They advocated for a nuanced understanding of the figures, balancing between optimism and pessimism. Additionally, they noted the potential benefits of a smaller population, such as environmental and food security advantages, alongside drawbacks concerning labor supply, social security, and nationalistic geopolitics.
Teresa Castro Martin, a researcher at the Spanish National Research Council, underscored the speculative nature of these projections, noting disparities between the Lancet study's timeline for a global fertility rate below replacement levels (around 2030) and that predicted by the UN (around 2050).
The study, an update of IHME's Global Burden of Disease study, underscores the organization's role as a leading source for health statistics worldwide, established at the University of Washington with support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
Source: France 24
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