Ukrainians need a cease-fire, but so do Russians: George Friedman

TVP World’s David Kennedy interviewed George Friedman, Chairman of Geopolitical Futures, geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs to ask how he sees the development of the war in Ukraine.

Mr Friedman said that when it comes to foreign support for Ukraine, two countries have done the most: Poland and the US. According to him, if other countries got tired of supporting Ukraine, it would change very little, so long as Poland and US remain by Ukraine’s side.

As for his prediction regarding the next couple of months, Mr Friedman points out that Russia, in spite of its good position from the outset, has shown a very poor performance so far. But as he says, Ukrainian defenders can hold the Russians back, but not defeat them. This is caused by several factors: Russian advantage in terms of heavy equipment, Ukrainian strategy relying on small, independently operating units, that harass the Russians, and the simple fact that Ukrainians are tired.

Mr Friedman believes that Ukrainians would benefit from a cease-fire, which would allow them time to rest, train new troops, and reorganise their units into larger formations, which is a must if they wish to be able to conduct successful counteroffensives. But obviously, any cease-fire would mean Russians also receive the same benefits. If Russians can speak of one success, it is that they managed to force the Ukrainians to fight continuously, without a moment of rest.

When it comes to identifying the major problem of the Russian army, Mr Friedman believes it is the lack of experienced non-commissioned officers and the reliance on junior officers, often the same age as the rank-and-file they command, instead.