The European Commission has inched up Poland’s economic forecast for 2021 and maintained its previous forecast for the country’s GDP growth for 2022, adding that Poland’s economy would be the EU’s first in terms of GDP growth ex aequo with Spain.
The forecast is 0.1 pp higher than the July figures. In 2022, Poland’s GDP is to grow by 5.2 percent and in 2023 by 4.4 percent, upping it to the top of the EU in terms of GDP growth. Poland would share the top position with Spain.
The European Commission’s experts wrote that Poland’s economy made a leaping rebound in the H1 of 2021 reaching the pre-pandemic GDP level in Q2. The economic growth was boosted mainly by the gradual alleviation of COVID-19 restrictions and the increasing trust of entrepreneurs and consumers. The upward growth curve will continue in 2022 and 2023 because of soaring household incomes which will translate into private consumption growth, experts posit.
Nevertheless, the analysts also noted potential risks rooted in faster-than-expected inflation and the coronavirus spread coupled with a low number of fully vaccinated individuals in Poland. These factors may hamper Poland’s economic recovery.
In terms of inflation, whose spike is caused, among others, by the rising price of energy resources, it is to go up by 0.2 pp and reach 5 percent in 2022 and plummet to the level of 2.6 percent in 2023.
The Commission’s data showed that inflation in Poland would be one of the lowest in the entire EU. The economic recovery helps reduce the public finance deficit. This year it will remain above the permissible 3-percent level and amount to GDP 3.3 pct. In 2021, however, it is expected to fall to GDP 1.8 percent, whereas in 2023 to GDP 2.1 percent.