Automotive transformation in Poland might generate 6,000 jobs: report

Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) report posits that the transformation of the automotive sector in Poland will generate 6,000 new jobs in Poland by 2030 under one condition — the electromobility market must be stimulated or else the sector would have to resort to layoffs.

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BCG’s report entitled “How electromobility will change the labour market in Poland. The green sectors of the future”, prepared together with the Polish Alternative Fuels Association (PSPA), comprises scenarios of the results of the transformation of Poland’s mobility sector by 2030. The authors of the report analysed six leading trends influencing employment in the Polish automotive industry and related sectors.

These trends are: reducing the volume of vehicle production, technological development, a shift of market shares of specific types of cars, a spike in production efficiency and jobs migration.

“We assume that the production scale on the automotive market would not return to the pre-pandemic level at least by 2030. In the coming years, we should also expect an approximate yearly increase of 11 percent in the cost of software installed in vehicles. This will increase the industry demand for developers. Due to the growing demand for premium models, the number of materials used in the manufacture of cars will also increase. The growing interest of customers in electric vehicles will present itself as a key factor. Their market share over the next decade will increase to approximately 20 percent,” PSPA managing director Maciej Mazur said.

The report demonstrates three scenarios for the transformation of the transport sector and its impact on the labour market in Poland.

In the pessimistic variant, which does not assume further actions for the development of the electromobility sector of public administration, the report forecasts that by 2030 there will be 380,000 jobs in the industries covered by the study, which in juxtaposition with 2020 means a decrease of 17,000 jobs (over 4 percent).

“Layoffs would be caused by a drop (of 1,000 jobs) in production in the automotive industry, offshoring (25,000 jobs drop) and soaring production efficiency related to digitisation and automation (28,000 jobs drop). The increase in using materials throughout vehicle production will result in the creation of 36,000 new jobs and the technological development of 3,000 jobs.”

The report shows that the development of electromobility would bring about a reduction of employment of just 2,000 jobs, “however, this relatively low number is linked to vast changes in the structure of the job market. Car producers and delivery services operating in the internal combustion engine-based automotive industry can expect a reduction of employment by 23,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the demand for e-mobility products and services, including lithium-ion batteries and recharging infrastructure, will result in the creation of 21,000 new jobs,” said Kristian Kuhlmann of BCG.

The authors of the report show that 170,000 employees would have to undergo retraining or reclassification. BCG and PSPA argue that changes should be made that would not only limit the negative effects of the transformation on the job market but actually bring about a spike in employment — a task that should be undertaken by the government, companies and employees themselves.

Finally, the authors are convinced that the intensification of action for the faster development of electromobility may not only alleviate undesired effects of the changes but also bring about positive results on Polish job market.